This course provides an overview of methods for economic forecasting. Topics include linear regressions; modeling and forecasting trend and seasonality; characterizing and forecasting cycles; MA, AR, and ARMA models; forecasting with regressions; evaluating and combining forecasts. Advanced topics such as unit roots, stochastic trends, ARIMA models, and smoothing will be covered as time permits. Students need to write computer program codes (MATLAB, Eviews, or R) to do forecasting. 3 undergraduate hours
Prerequisites (Must be complete BEFORE taking this course):
ECON 102 (Microeconomic Principles)
ECON 103 (Macroeconomic Principles)
MATH 220 or MATH 221 (Calculus 1)
ECON 302 (Intermediate Microeconomic Theory)
Faculty Teaching the Course:
This course is taught by the below faculty ~ you may click on their name to view their website with additional information. Please check the Course Explorer or Enterprise/Self-Service to see what section they will be teaching (teaching schedules vary by semester).
Professor Minchul Shin
Past Course Syllabi:
The following syllabi are from past semesters and should only be used as a guide for the information covered in the course and general structure of the course. The instructors have the right to change the course for upcoming semesters ~ please refer to the syllabus they distribute the first day of class.
ECON 490 Economic Forecasting Minchul Shin Past Syllabus
View the Course Explorer:
See when the course is offered in upcoming semesters and all the section details:
Restricted to ECON Majors. Please see our Fall 2017 Restrictions & Overrides Page for additional information.
Additional Course Information:
The below is helpful information from a discussion with Professor Shin regarding this course. Please keep in mind faculty may change the format of the course each semester, so it is important to follow the syllabus and guidelines for the semester you are taking the course (provided in class).
Is the class discussion or lecture based? How would you describe your teaching style? This course is lecture based.
Is there a textbook – is it required?
Textbook for this course is freely available. “Forecasting” book in this webpage: http://www.ssc.upenn.edu/~fdiebold/Textbooks.html
However, I expect students buy a computer software called EVIEWS. http://www.eviews.com/EViews9/EViews9SV/evstud9.html It is $40 and can be purchased at the above webpage. All computer exercises (in class and homework) are done with this software.
In what ways are students evaluated/graded (tests -- multiple choice or essay?, papers,etc)?
There will be three exams (two midterms and one final). 4~5 problem sets over the semester.
What careers will your course give students an advantage in?
Someone who wants to get a job from the industry that wants someone with econometric forecasting skill and knowledge. For example, economic consulting, financial management, product management, marketing etc.
What are some classes students can take before this to help prepare them for the material?
Students are expected to have a basic econometrics knowledge. For example, hypothesis testing, ordinary least squares, linear regression, etc.
Would this be a good course to use for a graduate school application?
What is your background in Economics or the field you are teaching in?
I do research and teaching in econometrics and macroeconomics.
How would you consider the workload in comparison to other 400 Level Economics Courses?
I don’t know how other 400-level courses are structured.
What is your attendance/participation policy?
Students are expected to come to the class.