Hello NLRS Working Group members,
See below for a message from the NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science.
Thank you,
Steering Committee
Illinois Nutrient Loss Reduction Strategy
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Sent: Thursday, June 13, 2024 3:12 PM
Good afternoon Hypoxia Task Force and Coordinating Committee members,
A few hours ago, NOAA released our annual Gulf of Mexico hypoxia or "dead zone" forecast. The forecast is for an above-average sized hypoxic zone of 5,827 square miles, making it above the 5,205 square mile average over the 37-year history of dead zone measurements in the region.
The forecast is based on nutrient loading data provided by USGS for the month of May. The NOAA ensemble forecast, based on multiple models, estimates the size of the hypoxic zone in July, around the time of the measurement cruise. We would like to thank our USGS colleagues for the long-standing partnership that enables us to produce this forecast.
NOAA’s modeling and forecasting tools are critical for management guidance. These tools and press releases help increase awareness among key stakeholders and the public on the role of nutrients and other factors in affecting the size of the hypoxic zone and the ongoing efforts in the watershed aimed at mitigation.
We often receive inquiries on watershed efforts to reduce the nutrients entering into the Gulf or what is being done to fix the problem. As in previous years and in line with our ongoing efforts to enhance coordination on this issue, there are sections in the press release referencing the Hypoxia Task Force (HTF). This year we continued our coordination efforts with EPA, USGS, and the HTF communications workgroup to ensure we're prepared to take advantage of the media interest in the press release and to highlight the ongoing state efforts. This coordination will continue through the release of our shelf-wide monitoring cruise measurements in August.
Thank you,
Sean
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Director
National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS)
National Ocean Service
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(410) 627-0336 (cell)
